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September 14, 2009

Walnut Creek once again bucks the trend--by seeing a rise in crime in 2008 when crime falls most everywhere else



Nationally, statewide, and in Contra Costa County, unemployment, interest rates, and stress are on the rise. However, crime rates are not on the rise in most of these regions, including nationally, as SHOWN ABOVE.

One place, though, where crime appears to be on the rise is on the rise is in Walnut Creek. That is, according to brand-new data released Monday by the FBI. This new Crime in the United States publication provides statistics for 2008, and allows a comparison between 2008 and 2007.

Not sure what Walnut Creek's "crime wave" is about, but here's what is going on, according to these new FBI figures, which allow you to look at reported offenses by state, county, and city.

Nationally, the number of violent crimes declined for the second straight year, including in murder murder and nonnegligent manslaughter (down 3.9 percent); aggravated assault (down 2.5 percent); and forcible rape (down 1.6 percent).


Property crimes on the whole declined for the sixth straight year, led in large part by a 12.7 percent reduction in motor vehicle thefts.

div>According to a special Crazy in Suburbia analysis of statewide data--completed by our "crack" team consisting of me and my calculator--crime dropped across the board in California. Violent crime dropped 3 percent, homicide, 5 percent, property crime, 3 percent, and car thefts 12 percent.

This decline in reported offenses was also reflected in Contra Costa data, with overall violent crime decreasing 16 percent, and property crime dropping 4 percent.

And then--drum rolll, please--we get to Walnut Creek, and what is happening in our fair city? As part of Crazy in Suburia's quality control of our analysis, I've gone back and triple checked these numbers. And, gosh golly, I'm seeing some pretty remarkable increases. (But I ain't no math whiz. Someone else feel free to correct my amateur calculations).


For example, from 2007 to 2008, the number of:

--Reported violent crimes in Walnut Creek went up from 90 to 144, for a 60 percent increase.

--Reported robberies jumped from 36 to 57, a 58 percent increase.

--Assaults? From 49 to 83, a 35 percent increase.
--Overall property crimes went up 5 percent

--Reported burglaries going from 506 to 568, a 12 percent increase

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

My guess is thay most of this crime takes place on weekends in downtown at closing hours for bars and clubs. The rest of the crime occurs in the neighborhoods where there is less police presence since officers are kept busy breaking up the fights downtown.

Anonymous said...

Anon 11:36 do you have any evidence to support your statement?

While I agree that this might reflect a bad trend, I would caution not to put too much emphasis on the absolute numbers for WC, because they are probably to small to be statistically relevant.

In order to see a real trend you probably would have to compare more than just two years to rule out that these are just fluctuations of the absolute numbers.

Anonymous said...

Anon 11:36

Bar activity is highest around midnight, home burglaries take place during the day. In my case it was 11am on a Saturday.

Your guess is not my reality. Although your comments make for a better media story. "Police tend to drunks while neighborhoods are overrun with crime... more tonight at 10pm"

Curious said...

SM, I can find the 2008 data in Table 8. Can you tell me where to find the 2007 data? Thanks.

Soccer Mom said...

Dear Curious,

Sorry it's taken me so long to post this information. But here it is for 2007. You can view offense tables, city by city. If you find anything flawed in my "analysis," please let me know.

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2007/offenses/standard_links/city_agency.html